A Russian military convoy more than 60 km long is heading towards Kiev. It is one of the largest military convoys in history, and has not been subject to deadly attacks by Ukrainian forces, confirming the deterioration of Ukraine’s military structure. The convoy is the subject of much speculation, and its aim may be to divide Ukraine into a Russian-influenced eastern part and a western part linked to the European Union and the West in general.
Satellite images show since last Saturday how several armoured vehicles, tanks and trucks for logistical support, such as transporting soldiers, ammunition, food and medical supplies, arrive in a 65 km convoy from the north towards the capital, Kiev, where it is located less than 20 km from the capital and close to Antonov Airport.
By way of comparison, this may be the largest military convoy in military history, especially since, according to satellite images, there is no great distance between the military vehicles, i.e. only a few metres. This convoy is a clear sign of Russian power, i.e. it is immune to attack. It is believed to have 50,000 troops. And the Ukrainian military command had confirmed, last Monday, that the aim may be to besiege many cities, not just the capital, Kiev.
In practice, if Ukraine had an air force, whether fighters or drones, it would have caused real damage to the military convoy due to the ease of hitting the target. But this did not happen, and the convoy was not subjected to ground bombardment, confirming one clear result, which is Russia’s success in destroying the Ukrainian air force and even the military infrastructure to a large extent, especially between the borders of Belarus and the capital, Kiev.
The absence of military strikes against the convoy confirms the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to fortification to defend some cities and the abandonment of launching military attacks against the Russians. At the same time, it confirms that Ukrainian forces have not yet formed small teams to move to guerrilla and commando warfare.
At the same time, given the damage caused by the Russians to Ukraine’s military infrastructure, this convoy is considered too large to take the capital, Kiev, from where the population began to leave en masse. However, the length of the convoy is an indication of Moscow’s strategic plan to divide Ukraine into an eastern section under its influence and a western section linked to the West. It seems that the scenario of dividing Germany into West Germany and East Germany, which was the most prominent manifestation of the Cold War, is now clearly back in this war.
Consequently, this caravan is likely to divide the country into two parts, the eastern part inhabited by Ukrainians who speak the Russian language and have a culture and prefer relations with Moscow, in contrast to a western part that mainly speaks the Ukrainian language and has a historical connection with Poland and at certain periods with Austria and Hungary and always prefers the West. It is possible that the eastern part will include all the beaches facing the Black Sea, which means that the western part will be deprived of the sea shores.
Russia has not yet pushed its elite forces into the ongoing war, which are armed forces with highly advanced and highly trained weapons. It prefers to keep these forces for the western front, either to deal with any military emergency in this region or to implement the process of dividing Ukraine into an eastern and a western part.
Russia launched war on Ukraine on 22 February, under the pretext of preventing it from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Moscow claims the war is legitimate because it wants to protect its national security. The Russian army focused on destroying the Ukrainian military infrastructure, which led it to advance towards the capital, Kiev, besieging several cities and controlling vast areas.